By Jared Rasic
The time has arrived for the 97th Annual Academy Awards, and we have more options than ever to watch the event. This year, it can be streamed live on Hulu for the first time ever, or watched on TV like our forefathers did before us.
Once again, I’ve divided my guesses into what should win vs. what will win, but with so many of the nominees this year coming from movies I genuinely enjoyed, I’ll be happy no matter who takes home the little bald man.
Actor in a Leading Role
- Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
- Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
- Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
- Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
- Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Who Will Win: Adrien Brody. His work in The Brutalist is monumental and deserves recognition.
Who Should Win: Brody. But if Fiennes or Domingo took it, I’d be so happy. Fiennes does work unlike any we’ve seen from him before, and Domingo is such a gentle and moving artist that it’s impossible not to root for him.
Actor in a Supporting Role
- Yura Borisov, Anora
- Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
- Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
- Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
- Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Who Will Win: Culkin. He builds such a jagged-edged, empathic character that it feels like we’re watching a tightrope walker dance over a bonfire.
Who Should Win: Culkin. He captures something singular in A Real Pain, but I sure love Borisov in Anora. In many ways it feels like the movie doesn’t even start until he shows up.
Actress in a Leading Role
- Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
- Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Pérez
- Mikey Madison, Anora
- Demi Moore, The Substance
- Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
Who Will Win: Moore. The academy loves a comeback almost as much as it loves a beautiful person under a bunch of prosthetic makeup. Also, it probably is the best performance of her career.
Who Should Win: I’m rooting for Moore just because of how much I love The Substance, but part of me really hopes Madison gets the upset. She paints with the entire palate.
Actress in a Supporting Role
- Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
- Ariana Grande, Wicked
- Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
- Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
- Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Who Will Win: Rossellini. She maybe has a dozen lines of dialogue in the entire film, yet they convey a thousand years of patriarchal servitude in just a glance.
Who Should Win: Probably Rossellini, but Jones’ work is for the ages and flawlessly calibrated.
Cinematography
- Lol Crawley, The Brutalist
- Greig Fraser, Dune: Part Two
- Paul Guilhaume, Emilia Pérez
- Ed Lachman, Maria
- Jarin Blaschke, Nosferatu
Who Will Win: Crawley for The Brutalist. I felt completely transported to period New York City.
Who Should Win: Crawley. To look as good as it did on such a (relatively) small budget is a minor miracle.
Director
- Sean Baker, Anora
- Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
- James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
- Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
- Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Who Will Win: Corbet. His work on The Brutalist is massive. Most people aren’t as in love with the film as I am, but I think his work here is legendary.
Who Should Win: Corbet, but I would still be so happy if Baker or Fargeat won. All of their work is seminal.
Documentary Feature
- Black Box Diaries: Shiori Ito, Eric Nyari and Hanna Aqvilin
- No Other Land: Basel Adra, Rachel Szor, Hamdan Ballal and Yuval Abraham
- Porcelain War: Brendan Bellomo, Slava Leontyev, Aniela Sidorska and Paula DuPre’ Pesmen
- Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat: Johan Grimonprez, Daan Milius and Rémi Grellety
- Sugarcane: Julian Brave NoiseCat, Emily Kassie and Kellen Quinn
What Will Win: No Other Land. Timely and important.
What Should Win: No Other Land. It’s not even close.
International Feature
- I’m Still Here (Brazil)
- The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)
- Emilia Pérez (France)
- The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
- Flow (Latvia)
What Will Win: I’m scared Emilia Pérez will win, but backlash has been so intense that I think it will go to The Seed of the Sacred Fig.
What Should Win: It doesn’t stand a chance, but The Girl with the Needle felt like the most groundbreaking effort.
Best Picture
- Anora: Alex Coco, Samantha Quan and Sean Baker, producers
- The Brutalist: Nick Gordon, Brian Young, Andrew Morrison, D.J. Gugenheim and Brady Corbet, producers
- A Complete Unknown: Fred Berger, James Mangold and Alex Heineman, producers
- Conclave: Tessa Ross, Juliette Howell and Michael A. Jackman, producers
- Dune: Part Two: Mary Parent, Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe and Denis Villeneuve, producers
- Emilia Pérez: Pascal Caucheteux and Jacques Audiard, producers
- I’m Still Here: Maria Carlota Bruno and Rodrigo Teixeira, producers
- Nickel Boys: Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Joslyn Barnes, producers
- The Substance: Coralie Fargeat and Tim Bevan and Eric Fellner, producers
- Wicked: Marc Platt, producer
What Will Win: It’s either Anora or The Brutalist. I think Anora has the momentum, but The Brutalist works better as a movie. I think Anora wins by a hair.
What Should Win: Anything but Emilia. In my heart I know The Substance is my favorite, but it doesn’t stand a chance. The Brutalist should win, as it’s a monumental work of artistic vision that moves me even just thinking about it. Although, if/when Anora wins, I’ll raise a glass to Sean Baker anyway.
