Windsor’s 2021 residential growth report shows development was up in 2021 compared to 2020, but the town’s population fell last year for the second straight year and the town is unlikely to meet its RHNA numbers for the current cycle.
The report is issued annually as part of Windsor’s growth control ordinance, revised in 2017, which requires developers be awarded growth control allocations for each unit they plan to construct. The ordinance divides allocations into two categories: Reserve A to incentivize mixed-use and high-density development, and Reserve B, which includes all other units.
While officials must receive the residential growth report and approve the number of allocations annually, the allocations are determined in five-year periods, with 2021 marking the end of a five-year period beginning in 2017, and growth control allocations for the next five-year period, from 2022 to 2026, determined at the Windsor Town Council’s Dec. 15 meeting.
The report, presented by Interim Community Development Director Emmanuel Ursu, showed that Windsor used only 228 of the 700 growth control allocations allotted in the past five years, leaving 67% unused.
Similarly, according to the California Department of Finance (DOF), the town’s estimated population decreased by approximately 285 people from January 2020 to January 2021, well below the 1.5% increase that the growth control ordinance plans for each year.
The report, which mostly served as an opportunity for council members to discuss current projects and the need for more development in Windsor, found that the town issued 76 new residential building permits between January and mid-October of last year, including eight for new accessory dwelling units (ADUs). That’s up 22 from 2020, but over the long haul, well below the growth planned for.
However, Windsor has seen an uptick in planned or proposed projects, which means the next few years will likely see far more development than the last few.
“In summary there’s almost 2,400 units in the pipeline, which is 225 more than last year,” Ursu said, referring to projects in one of three stages of development: approved projects, projects with submitted applications awaiting approval and pending projects for which only preliminary steps have been completed.
Projects in any phase of the pipeline may not ultimately be constructed, however, there’s reason for optimism among those supporting growth or dismay among those opposing it. For instance, two large projects accounting for 60% of approved projects in the pipeline — the 387-unit Vintage Oaks project and the 360-unit Mill Creek project — are expected to move forward after delays. Similarly, the town approved four new residential development projects last year, of which 79% are considered affordable: Redwood Views (52 units); Shiloh Apartments (62 units); Kashia-Burbank (54 units); and Shiloh Terrace (134 units).
Applications for four more projects totaling 436 units (of which 173 are affordable) were submitted this year, and three new projects totaling 97 units (of which 40 are affordable) fall under “pending” status.
For a complete list of projects in various stages of development, refer to the town’s “Current Development Projects” webpage.
Why Windsor must grow
While some Windsor residents or officials may oppose growth, ultimately, the Town of Windsor is not the final authority on whether or not the town grows, with mandates coming down from the State of California that the town plan for and make available land to accommodate the hypothetical development of a certain number of units every eight years.
Through a process called the Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA), the State of California allocates a certain number of units to jurisdictions through regional allotments. With the current RHNA cycle coming to an end this year, the main takeaway about RHNA is that Windsor will not meet numbers for the current cycle, and will be responsible for an even greater number of units in the coming cycle.
While there is some confusion about RHNA numbers, Ursu and then-Town Manager Ken MacNab stated that the town is not responsible for those projects being constructed, only for planning for and removing barriers to the development of that number of projects.
Ursu said the town would “probably not” meet RHNA numbers in the current cycle, but would “have a good jump on” the 6th Cycle, which runs from 2023 to 2031.
MacNab said that jurisdictions that fail to meet RHNA numbers are not currently penalized, however, the certification of a Housing Element Update, required to be completed alongside the eight-year RHNA cycle, is the real priority.
“There’s no penalty now. What’s important is we have a certified housing element, which demonstrates that we’ve appropriately analyzed the housing needs for the cycle, considered constraints and addressed those constraints, and we have sites not just simply designated but which can reasonably be developed,” MacNab said.
Ursu added that the lack of a certified housing element could expose the town to liability.
“The other thing is a certified housing element means we’re in compliance with state law, so it does provide a shield from lawsuits that a developer may want to file against the city. Also, failure to have a certified housing element puts you on a four-year cycle instead of an eight-year cycle,” Ursu said.
Council members ultimately approved 715 growth control allocations for 2022 through 2026, in addition to accepting a five-year services and infrastructure report which found the need for increased police and fire services.
