Jobs forecast still looking bleak

During last week’s State of the Union speech President Obama
mentioned one topic more than any other — jobs.
He talked about job creation, job training, tax breaks for new
jobs and more stimulus money for public works and employment
services.
Right now there are 26,000 unemployed workers in Sonoma County,
victims of the recession, government cutbacks and collapsed housing
and credit markets. The county’s unemployment rate is over 10
percent and expected to stay that high for the rest of the
year.
More than 5,000 jobs have been lost here where unemployment
rates were as low as 2 percent just 10 years ago and only 3.6
percent as recently as 2005.
The president’s warning that no economic recovery can begin
until people are put back to work was endorsed here this week by
public jobs programs leaders and economic experts.
“It all starts with jobs,” said Ben Stone, of the county’s
Economic Development Board. Retail sales can’t rebound until
paychecks grow and home construction won’t expand until people can
afford homes again, he said.
“Our economy will not move forward unless we have new jobs,”
agreed Herb Liberman, Healdsburg’s economic development officer.
“It’s a very simple answer to a set of very complex questions.”
One keystone to President Obama’s job creation proposals is a
one-time $5,000 tax credit to any employer that hires or creates a
new job. “I hope that actually happens,” Liberman said.
Sonoma County already has received $26.29 million in federal
stimulus funds for job training and support under the American
Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA).
The president is proposing a one-year extension of that program
in his $3.8 trillion federal budget. If the Act is renewed, the
county’s jobs programs and unemployed workers cold benefit from as
much as $10 million.
Last year’s federal funds were credited with creating 275 new
jobs in the county, including a summer youth program, clean energy
worker training and a subsidized worker program.
“It would be great if any of those programs can be extended,”
said Karen Fies, director of the county’s Workforce Investment
Board, a funding and program clearinghouse which includes Goodwill
Industries, Santa Rosa Junior College, Empire College and other
public agencies. “We have been right at our capacity to serve our
people as well as we’d like.”
Sonoma County’s unemployed population is both bigger than ever —
and more diverse, Fies and others said.
The county’s Job Link office served 5,000 job seekers last year
with job searches, career re-training and subsidized worker
programs. Besides the current 26,000 unemployed people in the
county, there is a much larger number of under-employed, furloughed
and inactive job seekers as well, Fies said.
“We’re seeing people getting a little more desperate. The
downturn is lasting longer that expected and many people are having
their unemployment extensions run out,” Fies said.
Even as local governments are forced to shrink their public
workforces, the County of Sonoma’s administrative office continues
to coordinate federal stimulus funds and proposals.
So far, the county has been awarded $9.89 million in ARRA funds
for human service, housing and homeless support, roadway
construction jobs, public safety subsidies and $1.98 million in an
energy and water conservation block grant for new public-private
programs.
“We’ve made great use of the federal funds to quick start our
energy independence program and complete some infrastructure
programs at the water agency, Jim Leddy, the county’s community and
government affairs manager said.
President Obama acknowledged the significant role that small
businesses play in the nation’s economy and job market, with most
workplaces having fewer than 50 employees.
Sonoma County’s largest employers are Kaiser Permanente, St.
Joseph Health Systems, Agilent, Medtronics, Sutter Health, Safeway
and River Rock Casino.
“On Main Street we have ‘Mom and Pop’ businesses where maybe
there’s just one other employee, if that,” said Teresa Ramondo,
executive director of the Sebastopol Chamber of Commerce.
Small businesses should band together and get creative with
their marketing, sales and shared services, Ramondo advised. “No
one is in this alone.”
Liberman works with small businesses in Healdsburg, offering
seminars, workshops and one-on-one sessions.
“The most important thing is to preserve your cash and don’t
think like an operations-business; think like a sales-oriented
business,” he suggested. “Whatever you do — don’t scrap your
marketing efforts.”
He said when the eventual economic recovery comes, it will be
the small businesses that lead the way. “They always do,” he
said.