COMMENTARY: Local energy summit

Gas prices have recently started to edge down below $3 a gallon.
But there is good reason to doubt that they will stay down for
long. Oil prices have more than doubled in the last 18 months. The
conservative Forbes magazine recently predicted that crude oil
could soon reach more than $100 per barrel.
Some of the current price at the pump is due to summer demand,
the Iraq war and Israel¹s invasion of Lebanon, as well as to
possible price gouging by producers. Nevertheless there are other
more serious factors that indicate we may be either at or
approaching the end of cheap oil. The cost of other sources of
energy, including natural gas and electricity, will increase
apace.
Richard Heinberg, whose recent book is ³The Oil Depreciation
Protocol,² and Climate Protection Campaign Coordinator Ann Hancock
will explore some of the deeper causes on Sept. 29 at a public
summit in Santa Rosa. The event is organized by the Energy
Transition Team and sponsored by various groups including PG&E
and the Leadership Institute For Ecology And The Economy.
Other factors influencing rising gas prices include increased
demand, first by American businesses and consumers, mostly to fuel
our inefficient and wasteful transportation system (read
automobiles) and second by China, which expects to double its
energy consumption within the next decade. India and Brazil also
have a growing appetite for ³ancient sunlight.²
But a far bigger factor is that petroleum is a finite
non-renewable resource. In fact, there is growing evidence that
world production of oil has either peaked or will soon peak. U.S.
oil production peaked in 1970 and has fallen steadily since,
requiring us to import more and more, mostly from politically
volatile parts of the world. Known reserves are being drawn down at
four times the rate of new discoveries.
The current round of gas price increases may or may not be just
a temporary bubble, but it is a herald of what is coming. At $3 a
gallon, many of us are feeling our lives impacted, particularly
those who have to commute to work by car. What will it be like for
the working poor when a gallon of gas costs more than the minimum
hourly wage? What impact will a price of $10 a gallon have on the
price of food or medicine or clothing? Will shared hardship bring
us together or drive us apart?
We don’t pretend to have the answers, but we think that it is
appropriate for us, as a community, to begin looking at these and
other questions. We believe that, collectively, we have the skills,
wisdom and spiritual resources to anticipate much of what might
result from a “peak oil” event and to develop contingency plans to
help us meet the challenges.
A number of cities, including Denver, Portland and Seattle, are
already taking steps to address future energy needs before they
reach a crisis point. Sonoma County is a leader in the
sustainability movement.
The Energy Transition Team in partnership with the Leadership
Institute For Ecology and the Economy and PG&E will be hosting
a follow-up conference on Friday, Sept. 29. This meeting will
include business and community leaders as well as the general
public because energy vulnerability is an issue which needs to be
addressed by all of us, not just by government.
– Larry Robinson is a Sebastopol City Councilman and Lee Pierce
is a Santa Rosa City Councilman